Over-Supply Well Beyond Melbourne’s CBD

Over-Supply Well Beyond Melbourne’s CBD
March 17, 2016 Simon Pressley

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For the ten (10) year period to the end of 2011, there were 35,226 new dwellings approved in Greater-Melbourne each year. The average annual building approvals over the last four (4) years is 12,000 dwellings higher, even though Melbourne’s population growth has been much the same.

There has been a distinct trend towards more apartments, with attached dwellings representing fifty-six per cent (56%) of all building approvals over the last four (4) years, up from the thirty-five per cent (35%) ten year average.

Melbourne City is on track to approving 19,000 CBD apartments over the last three years; this is an increase of 158% on the annual average from the previous five years. The Melbourne LGA population growth is just shy of 6,000 people per annum and equates to demand for 3,000 extra dwellings compared to the recent average annual supply of 6,300 CBD dwellings.

Houston, we have a (big) problem!

But, contrary to what’s been broadly reported over the last few years, Melbourne’s over-supply concerns are not contained to its well documented CBD apartment market.

Recent average annual rates of supply have more than doubled the long-term average in the LGA’s of Darebin, Glen Eira, Manningham, Maribyrnong, Stonnington and Yarra. And, between 50% and 100% increases in building approvals are unfolding in the LGA’s of Banyule, Bayside, Boroondara, Greater-Dandenong, Hume, Knox, Maroondah, Moonee Valley, Moreland and Port Phillip.

Our supply heat map illustrates that almost the entire fifteen kilometre Melbourne ring has excess supply in the pipeline.

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