Official government data confirms that, over the last decade, 65 percent of all capital city jurisdictions produced a population decline from people electing to relocate.
A fascinating research project conducted by Propertyology uncovered that, over the last 10-years, 89 out of the 137 municipalities that represent Australia’s eight capital cities experienced a combined net population decline of 835,153 to internal migration.
For perspective, that enormous volume of people from just a 10-year period is enough to fill two new cities the size of Canberra and Sunshine Coast, Australia’s 7th and 8th largest urban areas.
This is the opposite of ‘high demand’
Whether referring to food, fashion, homewares or housing, TRUE DEMAND is measured by exactly ‘what’ the people purchase, as opposed to the overarching population growth.
Despite their trendy culture elements, examples of capital city suburbs that Aussies continually say ‘bye-bye’ to include Bondi, Balmain, Bankstown and Bayview in Sydney, Brunswick, Brighton and South Yarra in Melbourne, Bulimba and Balmoral in Brisbane, Burswood and Belmont in Perth, and Burnside in Adelaide.
According to Australia’s official statistician, the ABS, 25 out of 33 municipalities that administer Greater-Sydney had 394,602 residents move away. That suggests ‘immensely unpopular!’
The remaining 8 Sydney municipalities gained 117,650.
So, the net result was a population decline of 276,952 in just 10-years.
Other than natural population growth (births minus deaths), Sydney’s overall population growth over the last decade was driven by 745,608 from net overseas migration.
Reviewing the contribution of overseas migration to the population of each of Australia’s 537 municipalities illustrates a ‘slipstream’ pattern. While existing Aussie residents have been moving away from high density locations throughout this century, overseas migrants become the replacement property occupants.
SYDNEY
Sydney’s biggest internal migration population losers have a lot of ‘concrete clouds’: they include the municipalities of Canterbury-Bankstown (net loss of 44,916 people), Parramatta (36,496), Cumberland (35,075), Sydney CC (32,421), Randwick (28,009), Inner-West (21,922), Northern Beaches (18,860), Bayside (16,585) and Waverley (13,653).
The facts reflect ‘rejection on steroids.’ But is anyone else paying attention?
In Greater-Melbourne, the exodus occurred in 24 out of 31 municipalities for a net population loss of 270,784.
The other 7-municipalities gained 204,102 people, meaning there was an overall net population decline to internal migration in Greater-Melbourne of 66,682 people.
Among Melbourne’s biggest exodus were the municipalities of Brimbank (minus 37,014 people), Dandenong (31,201), Monash (26,453), Whitehorse (17,995), Knox (11,992), Port Phillip (11,073), Maribyrnong (8,667) and Stonnington (8,178).
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Contrary to widespread commentary suggesting that ‘everyone is moving to Brisbane’, the municipality of Brisbane produced a net population decline of 3,001 people from internal migration over the last decade.
A decline of 6,149 over the last 2-years confirms accelerated exodus.
Brisbane City Council encompasses a 20-kilometres radius of the CBD and is home to 25 percent of the entire state of Queensland. It has many nice pockets, but the evidence confirms it does not tick as many boxes as elsewhere.
Population declines through internal migration occurred in each of the other capital cities, too.
And the pattern is the same – people relocating away from the inner and middle ring to lower density communities.
Perth had declines in 20 out of 38 municipalities for a net loss of 96,015.
Adelaide (14 of 19 for –34,339), Hobart (2 of 7 for –9,460), Darwin (2 of 3 for –20,902) and Canberra (an overall decline of 5,445) lost more than they gained.
These patterns within population across Australia represents indisputable statistical evidence that the majority of existing Australians do not have demand for high density living.
Hundreds of thousands of people move jurisdiction to actively pursue the lifestyle that they truly want.
The type of lifestyle that Australians demanded most over the last 10-years was the same as 80-years ago.
Back then, 1-million 10-Pound Poms wanted it so much that they left family and friends and spent 6-weeks at sea to migrate to the Land Down Under to get it.
In this modern era, existing Australian residents have much greater access to a significantly larger number of great lifestyle locations through well-established highway networks, 200 airports, the internet of things and the work-from-anywhere phenomenon.
Let’s be clear, high density living never has been the Australian way of life!
The exodus away from sardine-style living will continue to accelerate.
Lifestyle magnets
Each state has municipalities which attracted population from internal migration.
With a net increase of 118,804 over the decade ending June 2024, regional Queensland is Australia’s most popular destination.
QUEENSLAND
Out of 537 municipalities across Australia, Fraser Coast had the fifth (5th) highest population growth rate from internal migration (9.8 percent) during the last 5-years. Only 1.3 percent of its population growth came from overseas migration.
The townships of Hervey Bay and Maryborough benefit from Fraser Coast’s year-round warm weather, they have plenty of open space and 87 percent of dwellings are detached houses.
The popularity of Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast is well known. That said, Gold Coast’s housing density (just 57 percent houses) resembles capital city proportions and probably explains why the 3.4 percent population gain from internal migration is significantly less than Sunshine Coast’s 7.7 percent.
Overseas migration contributed 5 percent to Gold Coast’s population increase and 3 percent to Sunshine Coast’s.
Scenic Rim (median house price $830,000 and 92 percent of homes are houses), Ipswich (ranked 9th in Australia) and Moreton Bay (with a youthful median household age of 39 and 81 percent of dwellings are detached houses) are among a long list of internal migration magnets.
While Queensland has always been Australia’s strongest internal migration magnet, the pull north gained even more strength over the last 5-years.
Very noticeable upswings occurred in major regional cities such as Toowoomba (Australia’s second largest inland city), Townsville (significant recent urban renewal and a jobs boom), Cairns and Mackay.
VICTORIA
With an incredible net gain of 52,672 people (or 15.4 percent growth) in just 5-years, the outer-west Melbourne municipality of Melton is Australia’s 2nd biggest beneficiary of internal migration.
29 out of 48 municipalities across regional Victoria attracted a combined total of 102,731 people from internal migration.
2-hours south-east of Melbourne’s CBD is Bass Coast – Australia’s 4th biggest beneficiary of internal migration.
Bendigo (oozing its Gold Rush heritage and natural landscapes), Baw Baw ($610,000 median house price) and the outstanding border city of Albury-Wodonga are consistently popular for people who actively escape the concrete jungle.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Just 1-hour south-east of Adelaide is the township of Strathalbyn (municipality Alexandrina). Close to a few great beaches and Langhorne Creek’s wonderful wineries, this region ranked 10th highest in Australia for population growth rate from internal migration over the last decade.
With a median household age of 53 and 93 percent of properties being houses, Alexandrina is a stereotypical empty-nest demographic – people living their Aussie lifestyle dream.
Other relocation magnets in South Australian include Copper Coast (located along Yorke Peninsula and ranked 6th in Australia), Gawler, Barossa, Mount Barker and Victor Harbor.
Many of the locations mentioned in this report are among the list of 53-regional cities that produced a house capital growth rate that was equal to or better than the best-performed capital city over the last decade.
Australia’s best assets have always been our flora, fauna, sun, sand, quarter-acre blocks, barbeques, beer, sport, eucalyptus trees, wineries and our abundance of ‘rocks and crops’.
It is no coincidence that regional Australia’s population increased by 2.3 million people over the last 25-years.
NEW SOUTH WALES
Over the last 10-years, regional New South Wales gained 54,187 (net) from internal migration, many of them were part of the overall 276,952 net loss from various parts of Sydney.
Interestingly, NSW 2-biggest and relatively densely populated regional cities, Wollongong (38 percent of homes are apartments) and Newcastle (30 percent apartments), also had more people leave than arrive over the last 10-years.
On the south-western outskirts of Greater-Sydney, Camden is Australia’s 1st ranked municipality, with internal migration adding 16 percent to the total population over the last 5-years and overseas migration just 2.2 percent (well below the Greater-Sydney average of 6.6 percent).
In Sydney’s north-west, the aptly named municipality of The Hills was Australia’s 12th biggest beneficiaries of internal migration.
Bathurst (Australia’s 5th oldest city), beautiful Albury and the Hunter Valley duo of Cessnock and Maitland are NSW inland cities which consistently attract relocators.
With a median household age of 48, the charming regional township of Bowral in SE NSW has a classic empty-nest profile. Its municipality of Wingecarribee boasts Australia’s 6th highest median house price, a significant 45 percent of households own their home without a mortgage and only 19 percent of households rent.
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Along the south-east coast of NSW, Bega (84 percent of homes are detached houses and 49 percent are owned outright) had a small population gain from internal migration.
Port Macquarie the entire Northern Rivers region (idyllic seaside townships such as Kingscliff, Ballina and Byron) also lured people from other parts of this country.
TASMANIA
One of the many strengths of Australia’s stunning ‘treasure island’, Tasmania, is that the entire state has always kept a tight leash on housing density.
But it’s no coincidence that Tasmania’s two most densely populated municipalities, Hobart City Council and Glenorchy, both lost a small volume of population to internal migration, while the capital city’s outer-ring locations produced small gains.
Tasmania’s most popular municipalities for internal migration are Huon Valley (along Tasmania’s south coast) and West Tamar (one of many wonderful wine precincts in the state’s north, near Launceston).
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
After 6 consecutive years of people moving away from Western Australia, the state started to attract people from the east coast from 2020 onwards (directly linked with mining industry trends).
Over the last 10-years, WA had an internal migration net decline of 4,034.
Population gains from internal migration occurred in 29 regional municipalities. The strongest magnets are along the coastline south of Perth.
The food, booze, beaches and open spaces of Augusta-Margaret River, Busselton Mandurah all have a median household age of between 42 and 45, homeownership rates of 80 percent or more and median house values of between $650,000 and $950,000.
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