Australia-of-the-Future has zero chance of becoming the best version of itself due to fundamental flaws with its strategy for housing this nation’s population.
According to data-backed research conducted by Propertyology, apartments are no solution for housing affordability, nor homeownership. And most dwellings built each year reduce the lifestyle quality of communities.
Reviewing jurisdictions nationwide, the analysis examined homeownership rates, purchase prices, household movement patterns, house versus apartment dwelling types, demographics and rental concentration.
From first home buyers to mature families and empty-nesters, homeowners would rather pay a higher price and move to an entirely different community to own a detached house than buy a small dwelling such as apartment.
The evidence is undeniable.
Various heatmaps published in this report are a visual representation of official statistical evidence.
No one wants to become half-pregnant
Using the government’s own data, a few key metrics confirm that apartments are little more than temporary accommodation, akin to a 3.5-star hotel.
Several major Australian cities have been building as many new apartments as detached houses for 20-years, yet only a piddly portion of owner-occupiers buy apartments.
At least 60 percent (and as high as 85 percent) of all residential properties in inner and middle-ring communities of Australia’s biggest profile cities are now apartments or other ‘attached’ dwellings such as townhouses.
These first two heatmaps illustrate dwelling types, homeownership rates and the average household age of each municipality across Greater-Sydney.
Despite a majority of the properties in numerous communities being more affordable than conventional houses, homeownership rates in high-density municipalities are deplorable – typically between 35 and 55 percent.
Now and always, an overwhelming majority of existing and wannabe homeowners regard owning and living in anything other than a detached house with a yard as akin to aspiring to becoming half pregnant.
Who wants that?
Right across Australia, most municipalities wherein 70 percent or more of residential dwellings are detached houses have strong homeownership rates of between 70 and 90 percent.
Instead of learning from the type of dwellings purchased by owner-occupiers each year, property sector stakeholders remain recklessly obsessed with zoning changes, cramming in a heap of soleless concrete boxes and downgrading the lifestyle quality of established residential areas.
One can’t expect to create A-grade lifestyles for more people by dividing existing A-grade neighbourhoods into lots of B-grade homes ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
It took decades for humans to wise up to putting wheels on garbage bins, but there’s no excuse for housing. Our ancestors established centuries ago that humans value space and natural elements more than anything else.
This great Land Down Under has more of both than any country on the planet. So, how the heck did we regress?
The ratio of detached houses built each year in Australia has declined from 95 percent in the 1950’s to 60 percent in the 2020’s.
Those who believe there will be increased demand from owner-occupiers to buy apartments due to detached houses (apparently) not being affordable fail to appreciate decision making fundamentals of homeowners.
Indisputable evidence
The epicentre of Australia’s second largest city is a great example:
- 98 percent of all residential dwellings in the CBD municipality of Melbourne City are apartments.
- The population crammed into that jurisdiction is on par with the entire city of Toowoomba, Australia’s second largest inland city.
- Despite great proximity to jobs, cafes and public transport, Melbourne City’s homeownership rate is an abysmal 20 percent.
- Even the incredibly cheap median apartment price of $450,000 can’t entice households to become half-pregnant.
The evidence is just as compelling in every major Australian city.
Adelaide City (37 percent homeownership and $520,000 median price), Perth City (33 percent and $570,000), Brisbane City (43 percent and $680,000) and Sydney City (33 percent and $940,000) all have an abundance of relatively affordable dwellings, but apartments fail the fundamental test of ‘home’ for a huge majority of Australians.
An hour’s drive from Sydney’s CBD, 61 percent of properties in the municipality of Parramatta are apartments, the median value is an affordable $680,000, yet a paltry 54 percent of all properties are owner-occupied.
90-minutes out of the CBD is the Sydney municipality of Camden, where 93 percent of all properties are detached houses. Camden’s median house value is $1 million, it boasts an impressive homeownership rate 73 percent and average household age is a youthful 33.
For young families, empty-nesters and retirees, number 1 and 2 on their list of priorities are ‘detached house’ and ‘greenery’. All over Australia, the jurisdictions with the highest homeownership rates share these common denominators ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
Not fit for purpose
From the useless bureaucrats, to the plonkers in parliaments, property developers and the rest of us everyday Aussies, an overwhelming majority of (current and wannabe) owner occupiers in this great Land Down Under have no interest in buying a relatively small concrete box to call ‘home’.
Very few people are prepared to pay (say) $750,000 for a 100m2 2-bedroom apartment that they can’t fit a good-size couch in, and the dining room isn’t big enough to have friends over for dinner.
Apartments have grossly insufficient storage for personal belongings let alone having a quiet space to set up a home office. And the absence of a direct connection to nature is a caged-style living that goes totally against the grain of our DNA.
If necessary, people will pay $850,000 (or more) for a 230m2 detached house that offers sufficient separation from neighbours, 360-degrees natural sunlight, a lawn, trees, outdoor entertaining area, spacious living / dining, spare bedroom/s, oodles of cupboards, 2-car accommodation and a neighbourhood that boasts parks and sports fields.
The nonsensical notion that a big critical mass of Australians will now buy apartments as their home-of-choice is as foolish as car manufacturers expecting families to switch to buying 2-door coupes. Neither are fit-for-purpose ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
Apartments are not fit for the fundamental purpose of an Australian home.
Nationwide pattern of proof
Make no mistake, the patterns displayed in the previous heatmaps for Sydney are mirrored across most Australian cities.
Brisbane’s population is only half the size of Sydney. And there’s a significant variation in median house prices ($1 million versus $1.5 million). But the official statistics confirm that homeownership patterns are the same.
Related article: Sydney house price history
Brisbane’s inner 10-kilometre ring has great amenities, infrastructure, proximity to jobs and 50 percent of residential dwellings are apartments.
A large portion of properties in so-called ‘idyllic’ Brisbane suburbs such as East Brisbane, West End, Indooroopilly, South Brisbane, Hamilton and Woolloongabba are worth circa $700,000. Yet, despite this relative affordability, homeownership rates are between 30 and 50 percent – pathetic!
Australians will always prioritise lifestyle quality much more than property price. If the asset does not have sufficient space and a direct connection to natural elements, stuff all Australians will buy it as a home ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
In Brisbane’s middle ring, between 10 and 20 kilometres from the CBD, the cost to buy a standard house is double the price of inner-ring apartments, but homeownership rates exceed 70 percent.
Related article: Boomers, Gen X and Millennials
Regardless of the specific generation or the individual city, an 80m2 to 120m2 concrete cupboard in the sky never has met the definition of ‘home’ in this great Land Down Under.
Gold-star examples
Australia’s globally famous lifestyle has always been based on the foundation of relatively good weather, our flora, fauna and love for being active.
Through the Gold Rush era, in the post war 10-Pound Pom era, and even more so in this post COVID era… Australians still value these same things.
Here is a sample of municipalities, which boast gold-star homeownership rates, largely because they are well connected to nature and a very high portion of properties are detached houses:
- Golden Plains (Bannockburn) VIC
(94 percent homeownership and $670,000 median house price) - Adelaide Hills SA
(90 percent and $1.1 million) - Huon Valley TAS
(88 percent and $630,000) - Yass Valley NSW
(86 percent and $840,000) - Victor Harbor SA
(85 percent and $720,000) - Baw Baw (Warragul) VIC
(84 percent and $620,000) - Augusta-Margaret River WA
(84 percent and $900,000) - Wingecarribee (Bowral) NSW
(83 percent and $1.2 million) - Scenic Rim (Beaudesert) QLD
(82 percent and $860,000) - Port Stephens NSW
(80 percent and $860,000) - Fraser Coast QLD
(80 percent and $670,000) - The Hills (Sydney) NSW
(77 percent and $1.8 million) - Bendigo VIC
(76 percent and $570,000) - Clarence (Hobart) TAS
(74 percent and $730,000) - Melton (Melbourne) VIC
(74 percent and $610,000)
Lifestyle relocations
It is incredibly common for households to go to significant upheaval to secure a quality lifestyle.
The movement patterns of longstanding Australians (‘internal migration’) and homeownership rates confirm year-after-year mass exodus of population away from high density jurisdictions.
Over the last 10-years, 89 out of the 137 municipalities that represent Australia’s eight capital cities experienced a combined population decline of 835,153 (net) to internal migration.
Municipalities which attract notable net gains in population from internal migration are dominated by freestanding detached houses.
It is no coincidence that those same municipalities typically have impressive homeownership rates, and there’s plenty of youthful demographics among them.
For as little as $650,000, one could have purchased a 2-bedroom apartment in any of Melbourne’s 24x inner and middle ring municipalities. But that would be like buying a wheel with corners on it ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
Affordability did not prevent those inner and middle ring jurisdictions from a combined exodus of 270,784 through internal migration over the last decade.
Conversely, the outer-Melbourne municipalities of Melton (average household age of 33) and Whittlesea (35yo) attracted a net 73,151 people from internal migration during the last decade.
9 out of every 10 dwellings in these youthful communities are detached houses and the homeownership rates are greater than 70 percent.
Case Study: Borderless property investment
2-hours south-east of Melbourne’s CBD is Bass Coast – Australia’s 4th biggest beneficiary of internal migration. It is a stereotypical empty-nester hotspot (average household age of 51).
Bass Coast’s homeownership rate is extremely high at 88 percent and only 9 percent of homes are apartments or townhouses.
Every single year, countless Australian households from all generations demonstrate that small dwellings clustered together are deemed unsuitable for owner-occupiers by voting with their wallets and their feet [here’s where].
The aptly named Sydney municipality of ‘The Hills’ is a very good Case Study.
81 percent of dwellings are detached houses and residents are connected to nature (national parks, landscaped walking tracks and the Hawkesbury River). The Hills is also Australia’s 12th biggest beneficiary of internal migration.
Despite a lofty median house price of $1.8 million, it has a median household age of a youthful 38 and the homeownership rate in The Hills is very high (80 percent).
Conversely, there’s a bunch of other Sydney municipalities with apartments representing more than 70 percent of dwellings, the median apartment value is sub $1 million and homeownership rates are less than 55 percent.
Strathfield (50 percent homeownership rate), Cumberland (53 percent), Inner West and Parramatta (both 54 percent) and Canterbury-Bankstown (58 percent) and many others are as ‘popular’ as an overzealous parking attendant.
Slipstream for temporary accommodation
While convoys of longstanding Australians relocate away from relatively affordable but high-density jurisdictions every single year, an even bigger convoy of new arrivals from overseas pile into their slipstream.
2.485 million (net) overseas migrants arrived in Australia over the last 10-years.
The arrival of those foreigners has nominal impact on asset values because very few buy their home.
According to Australia’s official statistician, more than 90 percent rent the roof over their head for at least 5 years.
It is mind-blowing that, whilst this 6th largest country on the planet has an abundance of land and more than 400 townships, a staggering 1.7 million of those overseas migrants crammed into just four (4) of them – Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Gold Coast.
When Propertyology dug deeper into the data detail the evidence confirmed that, out of the 537 municipalities across Australia, a significant majority of overseas migrants live where the internal migrants vacated – close to the CBD in high-density apartments.
This next heatmap illustrates poor homeownership rates in those same municipalities – confirmation that most apartments are rented.
It also proves that the dominant demographic for buying apartments is investors – poorly informed ones.
Related article: Like putting lipstick on a pig
Frankly, I don’t care whether Australia’s population growth each year is zero, or if the net overseas migration intake is 500,000 per year.
It is irresponsible to allow such an enormous concentration of overseas migrants to pile into so few jurisdictions, and to not prioritise migrants who bring with them skills that Australia desperately needs ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
Despite a net influx of 1.3 million overseas migrants since the international border reopened 3-years ago, it is a shameful failure that Australia still does not have enough skilled workers.
Even our Housing Minister, Claire O’Neil, agrees the intake of migrants with construction skills was less than 10,000 people last year.
Politicians are as useful as shoes on caterpillars!
Supply strategy is stupidity on steroids
The carry-on from Group Think buffoons would have everyone believe that ‘housing supply’ is just about creating as many rooves as they can and at the cheapest price possible. Simpletons!
The outcome from such naïve nonsense is that 50 percent of new dwellings built across Australia over the last 15-years were ‘homes for the half pregnant.’
Australia must limit the volume of new apartments and other attached dwellings built each year to an absolute maximum of 20 percent of all new dwellings.
If it were true that property prices (affordability), proximity to the CBD and train stations were the biggest priorities for buying a home, homeownership rates would be well above the national average of 74 percent in locations close to each city’s heart. But evidence says the opposite is true ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
All property industry stakeholders must reconnect with the evolution of Modern Australia and get back to valuing the core things that made us globally admired as the World’s premier lifestyle destination.
It is impossible to have a truly intelligent housing strategy without making the Number 1 priority to develop more communities (including new cities) that boast freestanding houses on blocks which are no smaller than 600m2.
Any national housing strategy with an annual production volume consisting of fewer than 80 percent detached houses is an epic failure.
It is a serious act of stupidity to allow city councils to continually dilute the lifestyle quality of well-established communities by increasing density ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
More than 3 million of Australia’s current 11.5 million residential dwelling are apartments.
Australia has ample soleless, concrete cupboards. We have a shortage of communities that offer A-grade lifestyles.
To retain our global status as a lifestyle leader, Australian suburbia must protect existing house blocks and ensure surburbia has plentiful trees, sporting fields, sealed walking tracks, parks and playgrounds.
Unfortunately, the current action of Australia’s largest municipality, Brisbane City Council, is indicative of what’s happening across the country.
The person with the single biggest influence on the lifestyle of 25 percent Queensland’s total population, Brisbane Mayor Adrian Schrinner, has resorted to fearmongering and revenue-taking instead of vision and leadership.
Schrinner intends to cut the council ‘cake’ into lots more pieces through orchestrating taller building heights and higher density neighbourhoods with smaller lot sizes and reduced carparking requirements.
The political spin used to convince the community that his motivation for increasing housing density in 14 percent of his jurisdiction is that it will stop house values from soaring.
Even Pinocchio wouldn’t run with that rubbish!
The truth is that city councils generate $10s millions in extra revenue through clipping more tickets in a community with more density – initially from ‘infrastructure charges’ and then from council rates charged to more properties.
The attitude of Schrinner’s local government mirrors that of all 3-levels of government throughout Australia. They are operating a human capital importation business with a high volume, high margin, low quality business model.
Their collective construction efforts are forever replacing critical natural elements such as sunshine, grass and trees with more concrete structures and shadows, while doing absolutely nothing to improve homeownership rates – zip, zero, zilch! ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
Communities continually get destroyed. There are fewer places for kids to kick a ball, to throw a frisbie with the dog, very little distance between neighbours and intense traffic congestion.
The world does not become a better place by adding corners to perfect circles. The intelligent thing to do is to develop more circles. In homeownership parlance, apartments are the ‘corners’ and ‘circles’ are houses with a yard.
Responsibly preventing existing well-established communities of detached houses from being downgraded by higher-density development will mean that the right decision for some city councils will be to put up the ‘Full House’ sign.
Sydney’s inner 30-kilometre radius should have done that 50 years ago. Noosa should have done it 15- years ago. Mr Schinner and many other Australian mayors should be doing it now!
Our predecessors gave us the perfect blueprint for accommodating a growing population.
There’s no excuse for governments not building multiple new cities.
As each household’s circumstances change, the population will continue to circulate in and out of communities.
I feel very strongly about protecting the traditional Aussie suburban house from higher density. And I don’t give a rat’s arse if this attracts criticism of NIMBYism.
Those who pretend that ‘temporary shelter’ and ‘a quality Australian lifestyle’ are the same thing are as foolish as those who promote packaged food full of preservatives as ‘good nutrition’.
The people driving Australia’s shambolic housing strategy only care about their own revenue targets.
They have blatant disregard for the core essentials of ‘homeownership’ and for helping Australia-of-the-Future to become the best version of itself ~ Simon Pressley, Propertyology.
The combined 3-levels of government now slug Australians $100 billion per year from direct property taxes, of which more than 50 percent are paid by everyday Aussie property investors.
Contrary to their clever political spinning about ‘boosting housing supply’, the federal and state governments combined only add 3,000 extra dwellings to the national housing stock each year (effectively 2 percent of annual housing supply).
*** proudly produced without any influence of ChatGPT and assorted AI – the artificial junk responsible for turning well-functioning authentic brains into useless cabbages ***
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