Firm As Concrete Or Soft As Butter?

20 of Australia’s 25 largest cities currently have a record low volume of properties listed for sale, or very close to it; the same can be said for an overwhelming majority of the other 400+ townships across the country.

Aside from a few high-profile city exceptions, property market conditions across Australia remain as tight as a mouse in matchbox.

Very low supply of properties for sale means buyers are still required to compete hard, producing solid growth in asset values for owner-occupiers and property investors.

Research conducted by Propertyology compared current volumes of property listings for sale with this time 3-years ago. The evidence confirms that property market strength is expected to continue in most towns and cities.

But there is a huge chasm between the tightest and softest property markets across Australia.

The small number of cities whose property markets are currently soaking in extra supply include the nation’s capital, Canberra ACT (60 percent increase), Sydney (49 percent), Melbourne (42 percent), Wollongong and Byron (both 40 percent more supply) and Geelong (30 percent).

At the opposite bookend are cities with enormous reductions in properties listed for sale (housing supply).

At the top of this very long list of cities are the understated WA port city of Geraldton (currently with 50 percent fewer property listings than 3-years ago) and the largest city in the top half of Australia, Townsville QLD (40 percent less supply).

To illustrate contrasting conditions, the below graphic uses just 1-metric to provide us with a 16-year quick-and-dirty assessment of conditions of four (4) different cities.

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Economic conditions of each individual city and town across Australia varies widely.

For a majority of Australia’s 400+ townships, household incomes, home equity levels and household confidence remain as strong now as any other stage of the last 20-years.

Soft as butter

It is absolutely no coincidence that the cities with the softest property markets in Australia right now are those where buyer confidence is affected by flabby economic waste lines.

In Canberra, the current volume of property listings (supply) is an all-time record high and 61 percent more than 3-years ago.

Canberra’s soft property market can be simply explained by the decline of 20,000 jobs in the private sector.

Across Greater-Sydney, buyers currently have plenty to choose from with 49 percent more real estate listings than 3-years ago.

The softest jurisdictions in Sydney are The Hills District (a 57 percent spike in supply), CBD apartments (despite their relative affordability), Sydney’s eastern suburbs, the south-western suburbs and Sydney’s North Shore.

The long-running economic woes and political chaos of Melbourne is well-documented.

A total of 46,928 properties listed for sale across Greater Melbourne at the end of May 2026 is 42 percent more than 3-years ago and the highest volume since way back in 2013.

Skilful intelligence versus fingernail deep analysis

As often happens, the national narrative is naively dictated by conditions in Australia’s two (2) biggest cities while ignoring the other 400+ townships.

Strong local economies in Australia’s third (Brisbane) and fifth (Adelaide) biggest cities underpinned the 40 percent capital growth over the last 3-years.

Conversely, softer local economies attributed to notably lower rates of capital growth in in both Sydney (15 percent) and Melbourne (zero growth).

Meanwhile, even stronger local economic conditions drove property markets in Mount Gambier SA (50 percent capital growth), Australia’s 15^th largest city (Toowoomba, 55 percent), Perth (60 percent), Busselton (65 percent) and Townsville (75 percent).

Related article: Client Case Study

Firm as concrete

Australia’s 14^th and 18^th largest cities, Townsville and Darwin, now have 40 percent less housing supply for sale than this time in 2023.

Comparing right now to this time 3-years ago, Australia’s 14^th and 18^th largest cities, Townsville and Darwin, now have 40 percent less housing supply for sale while our 2^nd largest city has 42 percent more supply listed.

It’s akin to concrete versus butter!

For perspective, the 16,973 properties currently for sale in Greater Brisbane is 43 percent less than the same time 15-years ago yet 720,000 extra people now live in Brisbane.

Conditions are even tighter than Brisbane in plenty of locations.

For a high portion of Australia’s 400+ townships, their incredibly low volume of supply means buyers are competing like seagulls over a chip.

To help people appreciate the breadth of property market pressure across Australia, here is a small sample of locations with their respective change in listings supply over the last 3-years:

1. Geraldton WA (minus 50 percent)
2. Busselton WA (minus 45 percent)
3. Bunbury WA (minus 45 percent)
4. Darwin NT (minus 43 percent)
5. Strathalbyn SA (minus 41 percent)
6. Townsville QLD (minus 40 percent)
7. Mackay QLD (minus 37 percent)
8. Albany WA (minus 37 percent)
9. Muswellbrook NSW (minus 31 percent)
10. Warwick QLD (minus 25 percent)
11. Wodonga VIC (minus 25 percent)
12. Noosa QLD (minus 24 percent)
13. Devonport TAS (minus 24 percent)
14. Cairns QLD (minus 19 percent)
15. Maryborough QLD (minus 17 percent)
16. Perth WA (minus 16 percent)
17. Orange NSW (minus 15 percent)
18. Sunshine Coast QLD (minus 12 percent)
19. Fraser Coast QLD (minus 12 percent)
20. Airlie Beach QLD (minus 8 percent)
21. Victor Harbor SA (minus 7 percent)
22. Brisbane QLD (minus 6 percent)
23. Adelaide SA (minus 1 percent)

The official statistics in this report make a mockery of the daily commentary which ignorantly references the ‘national’ property market, the ‘national’ economy, and the ‘national’ clearance rate.

This data also marries up with Propertyology’s own experiences, in the trenches buying for our property investment clients in variety of diverse locations across several different states.

As sure as a hot summer’s day, well-chosen assets purchased today will be worth significantly more in 10 and 20-years’ time.

Propertyology are national buyer’s agents and Australia’s premier property market analyst. Every capital city and every non-capital city, Propertyology analyse fundamentals in every market, every day. We use this valuable research to help everyday Aussies to invest in strategically-chosen locations (literally) all over Australia. Like to know more? Contact us here.

Here’s how we combine our thought-leading research with Propertyology’s award-winning buyer’s agency services.