Humans are capable of creating all sorts of clever widgets, tech tools and agitating digital stuff.
Humans are capable of putting humans on the moon.
But when it comes to humans making sure there’s enough properties for different humans at different stages of their life to live in….
This is Australia over the last 10-years:
Population: increased 4 million
[from 24 million in 2016 to 28 million in 2026]
Available rental supply: decreased 49%
[rental vacancy: from 74,000 in 2016 to 38,000 in 2026]
If humans in high places (aka ‘bureaucrats’) used basic intelligence and provided basic support for suppliers of rental accommodation, equilibrium of 2.5 percent vacancy rate would exist in most cities in most years.
Alas, below is a graphical presentation of official statistics to summarise the current state of play across Australia.
1 out of every 3 properties
Ponder this.
Would an intelligent human agree that an increase in the volume of humans requires an increase in the volume of homes?
Would an intelligent human agree that homeownership is among the biggest goals in a human’s life?
Would an intelligent human agree that homes do not grow on trees?
Would an intelligent human agree that most properties which satisfy the personal needs of each household are established dwellings, as opposed to a new ‘cupboard in the sky’ or new house on the outer urban parameter?
Would an intelligent human agree that it is not feasible for society to simply gift property to a human as soon as they leave the comfort of their parent’s home?
Would an intelligent human agree that homeownership comes with significant responsibility (saving a deposit, paying the home loan on time, maintaining the home, insurance for the home, etc)?
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It does not require much intelligence at all to understand why, regardless of the era, 30 percent of human population will always depend on rental accommodation for the following common-sense reasons:
- Insufficient income: don’t earn enough to buy a home (unemployed, low-income earners, single-income households, young adults).
- Poor financial responsibility: don’t pay financial commitments on time, prioritise discretionary spending ahead of consistent savings).
- Income instability: unreliable source of income to support a mortgage (casual employment, frequently changing jobs, widely fluctuating income from period to period).
- Not ready to anchor roots: regular relocations for career ambitions, thirst for travel, waiting to meet their life partner.
- Poor character: apathetic attitude, long-term unemployed, criminal record, bankruptcy.
- Relationship fracture: divorce, death of partner.
- Legitimately vulnerable: disability, domestic violence.
For the above reasons, it is seriously unintelligent to expect homeownership rates will ever be any better than circa 70 percent.
It has consistently been at that level for the entire 65 years since 1961.
Regardless of the year, 3 out of every 10 Australian households will depend on rental accommodation.
Institutions For Idiots
To maintain status quo with the growing population, the total volume of properties in the national rental pool increases each decade and is currently circa 3.45 million out of 11.5 million properties nationwide.
But the combined contribution made by state and federal governments (circa 300,000 out of 3.45 million) is the same volume now as it was 50-years ago, when 14 million fewer humans lived in Australia.
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If the ‘Institutions For Idiots’ choose to spend everyone’s hard-earned taxes on things other than housing, it is absolutely essential that they provide encouragement and support to those who fund rental supply.
Riddle me this…
Here’s the reality of what those humans in high places do to those who might be prepared to fund more supply for Australia’s rental pool:
- Entry costs: charge stamp duty of $32,000 to $70,000 per property.
- Entry capacity: enforce overzealous credit policy.
- Preservation of basic asset ownership controls: instead, they prescribe overregulated tenancy laws.
- Investment income: instead of respecting the fundamental importance of a free market economy, they impose significant rent price restraints.
- Holding costs: they discriminate by banning the accommodation provider’s ability to recover some of the annual losses via negative gearing.
- Holding costs: they charge land tax.
- Holding costs: they charge premiums to investors for city councils rates.
- Reward for effort and taking risks: they charge capital gains tax.
- Flexibility: they prohibit leveraged investments in residential property via SMSF’
It is crystal clear that the specific humans who created Australia’s ankle-deep rental pool have brains made of plasticine and core values made of arsenic.
Watch this space…
As recently as just 2-months ago, the human empowered to manage the finances of 28 million Australians, Federal Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers, said his latest tax raid on property would only add “a few dollars” to weekly rent prices.
Clearly, he had nothing to do with putting humans on the moon.
One does not need to be Einstein to realise that recent policy changes by the Institution For Idiots will produce an ugly, prolonged rental supply drought and extreme tension among tenant communities.
Everyone should now expect to see, between now and the next Federal Election in May 2028, an explosion in house sharing, young adults moving back in with their parents, and skyrocketing rent prices across Australia.
Sydney is likely to lead the charge with soaring rent prices.
But don’t be surprised if rent increases of $100 per week or more occur in umpteen cities and towns across this big country.
As for asset values, I recently outlined why double-digit rates of capital growth in many cities are still likely for this 2026 calendar year and beyond.
When plasticine is eventually replaced with properly functioning grey matter, the introduction of supportive housing policies and lower taxes will be enjoyed by everyone who chooses to adopt an aspirational attitude.
Meanwhile, Propertyology’s focus continues to be this.
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