How Well Has Your Apartment Performed?

How Well Has Your Apartment Performed?
October 3, 2019 Simon Pressley

Of the dozens of research reports and opinion pieces that Propertyology produces each year, very few have attracted as much interest as our recent report, Australian real estate’s equivalent of the Bubonic Plague.

Australia has produced a tsunami of residential apartment construction in the short time since the turn of this century. To put this into context, it’s taken circa 250 years to build the 10 million dwellings which today house Australia’s 25 million population, yet we’ve built 1 million apartments just within our 8 capital cities over the last 16 years.

For a variety of reasons, Propertyology is very concerned for all owners of high-rise apartments that were built during the last 20 years. One such concern is the enormous repair bills for major structural defects – several highly publicised buildings is just the tip of the iceberg.

Every year, for ever and a day, there will be tens of thousands more apartments with major defects that get exposed and very few apartment owners will have any form of financial recourse. Consequently, existing apartment owners now have the enormous uncertainty of when-will-it-happen-to-me while the pool of prospective future buyers will forever diminish.

The financial performance of high-density apartments in every Australian city over the last decade has already been horrible.


Related Story:
How To Avoid The Bubonic Plague Of Australian Real Estate

Before some of you get too carried away, yes, tens of thousands of high-rise apartments across Australia have produced asset value growth over the last decade. This is particularly the case in Sydney and Melbourne whom both benefitted from a 4-year boom during that decade. But high-rise apartment owners should be more concerned with the price growth differential between a standard house in their city and those apartments – the gap is ENORMOUS!

Each and every year that an individual city’s housing market performs sluggishly, the risk of high-rise apartment value decline significantly increases. Zero growth or even substantial losses over the next decade are highly possible. The precedent has already been set in hundreds of high-density suburbs across Australia.

With the likelihood that this real estate bubonic plague will be the biggest issue to affect Australian property markets in our 250+ year history, we’ve taken the time to compare the total increase in Australia’s big-city median detached-house prices over the decade ending May 2019 with the median apartment price increase in hundreds of high-density suburbs. For the ‘non-believers’, we’ve also included examples of individual properties with real values and sale dates to illustrate the significant under-performance.

High-rise apartment owners would be wise to consider their own circumstances after reviewing this report and our earlier Bubonic Plague report.

 

Melbourne

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$392,000 $750,000 6.7% 91%
  • When compared directly to its own city’s performance of detached house price growth over the last decade, Melbourne’s high-rise apartment property markets have performed significantly worse than every other Australian city;
  • High-density is no longer confined to Melbourne’s inner 10-kilometre ring. Suburbs like Dandenong, as far as 34 kilometres from Melbourne’s CBD, now have six apartments for every 4 houses. In Box Hill, Elwood and Parkville, apartments represent 8 out of 10 dwellings;
  • As shown in the right hand column of the table below, the detached-house versus apartment median price growth over the last 10-years is staggering. While Greater-Melbourne’s median house price increased by 91 per cent, Abbotsford (only 3 per cent), South Yarra and Balwyn (both 18 per cent), St Kilda (30 per cent) and Richmond (35 per cent) are among a long list of suburbs where the comparative apartment performance was appalling;


Related Article:
Next Step For Melbourne And Sydney Property Owners

  • To put percentages into dollar terms, Brunswick’s median house price increased from $540,000 to $950,000 (84 per cent growth) over the last 10-years while the median apartment price went from $400,000 to $513,000 (28 per cent growth). That’s a differential of 56 per cent (84 less 28 per cent growth) and one which is likely to widen in future years because of the ‘Bubonic Plague affect’;
  • Being centrally located, in a trendy area, being close to a train station, or having a sleek fitout mean absolutely nothing from a capital growth perspective if there are thousands of same-same ‘Lego properties’ for buyers to choose from. There’s no significant point of difference from one apartment to the next;
  • 10-years ago, for $380,000, one could have purchased a nice apartment in Maribyrnong, 10-kilometres north-west of the CBD, and today it’s worth $480,000 (25 per cent growth). Instead, one could have purchased a good house and backyard at Lalor for $300,000 and today it would be worth $594,000 (98 per cent growth).
High Density Suburbs
[Apartments / Houses]
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Docklands 100% 11% 80%
Southbank 100% 24% 67%
Melbourne City 99% 27% 64%
St Kilda 87% 30% 61%
West Melbourne 86% 30% 61%
South Yarra 84% 18% 73%
Box Hill 77% 37% 54%
North Melbourne 77% 24% 67%
Elwood 77% 38% 53%
Parkville 77% 12% 79%
Collingwood 73% 28% 63%
Abbotsford 70% 3% 88%
Fitzroy 66% 40% 51%
Clayton 65% 42% 49%
Prahan 63% 35% 56%
Toorak 63% 47% 44%
Port Melbourne 63% 39% 52%
Armadale 63% 32% 59%
Richmond 62% 35% 56%
Nottinghill 62% 30% 61%
Dandenong 62% 45% 46%
Hawthorn East 59% 27% 64%
Brunswick 52% 28% 63%
Kensington 51% 27% 64%
Hughesdale 50% 48% 43%
Doncaster 46% 28% 63%
Burwood 45% 47% 44%
Balwyn 44% 18% 73%
Surrey Hills 37% 45% 46%
Clifton Hill 37% 27% 64%
Coburg 32% 37% 54%

Canberra

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$450,000 $660,000 3.9% 46%
  • Apartments and townhouses, as opposed to detached houses, have long been the more common dwelling type in Canberra. 62 per cent of all new dwellings approved in Canberra over the last 16 years were apartments and townhouses;
  • 8 out of 10 properties (or more) in suburbs such as Turner, Phillip, Bruce and Braddon are apartments;
  • Over the 10-years ending May 2019, Canberra’s median house price increased by 46 per cent. The median apartment price increases were below 20 per cent in 25 individual Canberra suburbs;
  • The largest differential between 10-year median apartment price growth and Greater-Canberra’s house price growth were in Watson (65 per cent difference), Barton (58), Forrest (56), and Hawker (55). On the other hand, the 52 per cent increase in the median apartment price in the suburb of Lyons is a superior growth rate to house prices in many suburbs.
High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
City 99% 2% 44%
Kingston 95% 22% 24%
Barton 94% -12% 58%
Greenway 92% 1% 45%
Braddon 91% 10% 36%
Phillip 88% 2% 44%
Lawson 84% 0% 46%
Turner 83% 2% 44%
Bruce 78% 3% 43%
Griffith 64% 32% 12%
Forrest 62% -10% 56%
Wright 62% 0% 46%
Coombs 61% 0% 46%
Lyneham 61% 19% 27%
Gungahlin 55% 20% 26%
Mawson 53% 18% 28%
Franklin 50% 9% 37%
Lyons 44% 52% 6%**
Bonython 41% 31% 15%
Harrison 40% 15% 31%
Palmerston 35% 17% 29%
Macquarie 32% 7% 39%
Florey 14% 32%
Hawker -9% 55%
Holt 15% 31%
Page 11% 35%
Watson -19% 65%
Narrabundah 10% 36%
Gordon 21% 25%
Chifley 9% 37%
Pearce 10% 36%

Brisbane

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$412,000 $560,000 3.1% 36%
  • Brisbane’s year-after-year modest price growth for all of the last decade has culminated in a 36 per cent total increase in Greater-Brisbane’s median house price. The table below contains the names of 20 suburbs wherein the median apartment value today is below that of 10 years ago;
  • Brisbane’s contagion of high-rise apartment construction over the last 10 years was mostly contained to the inner 3-kilometre ring along with middle-ring suburbs that are adjacent to major Westfield shopping centres and / or universities. Several suburbs in the municipality of Logan have also seen declines in median apartment values over the last 10 years;


Related Article:
Queensland’s Double-Digit Growth Potential

  • On the balance of probability, there would be very few high-rise apartments that were built at any stage within the last decade that today have not subsequently declined in value. Apartment owners hit the hardest are those within newer buildings in suburbs such as Newstead, Milton, Bowen Hills, Hamilton, Fortitude Valley, Chermside and West End;
  • 10-years ago, for $420,000, one could have purchased a new apartment in Bowen Hills, 2-kilometres north of the CBD, and today it’s worth $365,000 (a 13 per cent decline). Instead, one could have purchased a good house and backyard at Petrie for $365,000 and today it would be worth $450,000 (23 per cent growth);
  • Another example of the importance of appropriate asset selection is the inner-west suburb of Auchenflower. While the median house price increased from $695,000 to $1,277,500 (84 per cent) over the last decade, the median apartment price actually declined by 1 per cent. The lost opportunity cost from lots of same-same dwellings is big!
High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Brisbane City  99%  14%  22%
Newstead  99%  -28%  64%
Fortitude Valley  97%  -4%  40%
Bowen Hills  96%  -13%  49%
South Brisbane  94%  21%  15%
Kangaroo Point  90%  19%  17%
Spring Hill  88%  -7%  43%
Teneriffe  88%  3%  33%
Milton  80%  -21%  57%
New Farm  79%  26%  10%
Lutwyche  77%  30%  6%
Hamilton  75%  18%  18%
West End  75%  -5%  41%
Nundah  74%  -6%  42%
Chermside  72%  -4%  40%
Toowong  70%  9%  27%
Taringa  70%  1%  37%
Kelvin Grove  68%  -8%  44%
St Lucia  68%  7%  29%
Woolloongabba  65%  2%  34%
Auchenflower  63%  -1%  37%
Herston  57%  7%  29%
Annerley  57%  7%  29%
Greenslopes  57%  12%  24%
Coorparoo  56%  7%  29%
Morningside  55%  7%  29%
East Brisbane  54%  4%  32%
Bulimba  53%  27%  9%
Indooroopilly  52%  4%  32%
Windsor  50%  16%  20%
Carina Heights  46%  -3%  39%
Newmarket  44%  7%  29%
Sherwood  44%  -6%  42%
Woodridge  41%  -14%  50%
Mount Gravatt  38%  0%  36%
Upper Mount Gravatt  37%  -3%  39%
Cleveland  37%  9%  27%
Beenleigh  35%  -15%  51%
Wilston  31%  36%  0%
Enogerra  31%  -13%  49%
Cannon Hill  30%  0%  46%
Corinda  29%  -3%  39%
Springwood  28%  -1%  37%
Waterford West  27&  -11%  47%
Browns Plains  24%  -2%  38%
Underwood  23%  -2%  38%
Kippa Ring  23%  -13%  49%
Carindale  10%  -10%  46%

Sydney

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$456,000 $915,000 7.2% 100%

 

  • From the arrival of the First Fleet at Botany Bay in 1788 to the 2016 Census, Sydney amassed 1.8 million dwellings. With 43 per cent of all dwelling stock now being apartments and townhouses (compared to the 27 per cent national average), Sydney has the highest density in Australia. Sydney is a mature apartment market with more than 6 out of every 10 new dwellings built each year, for the last 20 years, being apartments;
  • Over the 10-years ending May 2019, Greater-Sydney’s median house price increased by 100 per cent. 65 per cent of that growth occurred during a 4.5-year property market boom which ended in July 2017;


Related Article:
Learnings From Sydney’s 30-Year Property Market History

  • As they say, ‘rising tides lift all ships’ so Sydney apartments also appreciated in value. The rates of growth however, were nowhere near as significant as detached houses. The table below contains 24 individual suburbs with a growth in median apartment value that was approximately half that of Greater-Sydney’s detached house price growth;
  • Suburbs such as Ryde, which have seen an enormous increase in apartment construction in recent years, produced only a very small portion of apartment price growth (25 per cent, compared to 100 per cent for Greater-Sydney houses). Norwest and Strathfield South (29 per cent growth), Killara (32 per cent), Little Bay (34 per cent), Holroyd (40 per cent), and Asquith (41 per cent) were the weakest Sydney property markets;
  • There will be literally thousands of Sydney apartments which today are worth significantly less than 4 or 5 years ago. It took us very little time to find the apartment examples in these images.

 

High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Wentworth Point Most suburbs in Sydney have 50% or more apartments. 46% 54%
Rhodes 53% 47%
Breakfast Point 54% 46%
Waterloo 67% 33%
Rosehill 46% 54%
Cremorne Point 57% 43%
Camperdown 65% 35%
Holroyd 40% 60%
Botany 59% 41%
Ryde 25% 75%
Little Bay 34% 66%
Bronte 53% 47%
Greenwich 57% 43%
North Ryde 25% 75%
Strathfield South 29% 71%
Norwest 29% 71%
Killara 32% 68%
Asquith 41% 59%
North Turramurra 43% 57%
Warrawee 46% 54%
Dundas 50% 50%
Winston Hills 53% 47%
Carlingford 55% 45%
Guildford 55% 45%
Pymble 56% 44%
Wahroonga 61% 39%

Perth

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$430,000 $515,000 1.8% 19%
  • Australia’s fourth biggest city has never embraced apartment lifestyle, but that hasn’t stopped local developers trying to force the issue with the construction of numerous high-rise apartment buildings. The table below contains 19 suburbs with more than 40 per cent of total dwelling stock being apartments and townhouses;
  • While the last decade was a lean one for Perth’s property market, Greater-Perth’s median detached house price still produced a 19 per cent increase;
  • 22 Perth suburbs produced between zero growth and a 32 per cent decline in median apartment value over the last 10 years. Numerous inner-city suburb apartment markets performed poorly due to over-supply (and over-priced) high-rise construction, while many outer suburb apartment markets performed poorly due to low apartment demand in locations where the cost for a detached house is quite accessible;
  • With a 21 per cent decline in median apartment value, the cosmopolitan Perth inner-city suburb of Burswood was one of Australia’s worst-performed apartment markets over the 10-years ending May 2019. Hundreds of property buyers would have initially been lured by the aesthetic of a shiny new apartment with water and city views and being located adjacent to the new Perth Stadium and the Crown entertainment precinct. Contrary to all of the real estate hullabaloo, neighbourhood features and benefits are not property market fundamentals;
  • The apartment pictured above is a standard 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom configuration within a modern, inner-city Burswood complex. The original owner paid $810,000 in January 2008 and sold it 10-years later [June 2018] for $535,000. Instead of this $275,000 capital loss (or 34 per cent), a modest gain would have occurred if one purchased a standard Perth house during this period;
  • Older-style apartments with character, found in locations such as Fremantle, performed quite well over the last decade. This is proof that apartments per se aren’t necessarily poor asset choices – substandard performance occurs as a result of cookie-cutter, same-same, mass production (and poor construction industry governance which has resulted in a significant deterioration in product quality).
High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
East Perth 93% -1% 20%
Perth City 87% -9% 28%
Burswood 77% -21% 40%
Osborne Park 70% -11% 30%
South Perth 64% 16% 3%
Maylands 60% 3% 16%
Como 58% 7% 12%
North Fremantle 58% 37% 18% **
Subiaco 56% -10% 29%
Victoria Park 56% 1% 18%
Tuart Hill 54% -11% 30%
Leederville 51% -4% 26%
Rivervale 51% -7% 26%
Fremantle 50% 38% 19% **
Midland 49% -17% 36%
Joondanna 47% 4% 15%
Wembley 47% -1% 20%
Claremont 47% 0% 19%
Mount Lawley 43% 9% 10%
Cannington 39% -3% 22%
Yokine 36% -3% 22%
Rockingham 34% 7% 12%
Palmyra 34% 10% 9%
Bicton 31% 3% 16%
East Fremantle 30% -3% 22%
Cottesloe 30% -8% 27%
Innaloo 29% -9% 28%
Balcatta 21% -6% 25%
Hamilton Hill 19% 0% 19%
Queens Park 17% -20% 39%
St James 17% -17% 36%
Armadale 16% -32% 51%
Kelmscott 10% -29% 48%

Adelaide

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$364,000 $480,000 2.8% 31%

 

  • Adelaide’s property market has run mostly parallel to Brisbane over the last decade. Greater-Adelaide’s median house price increased by 31 per cent during the 10-years ending May 2019;


Related Article:
Adelaide Rental Market Analysis

  • Aside from Adelaide’s city heart and neighbouring suburbs, the seaside suburb of Glenelg is one of the very few suburbs with apartment prominence. Villas and townhouses are found throughout suburban Adelaide.
High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Adelaide City 83% 12% 19%
Glenelg 80% 24% 7%
Ashford 65% 0% 31%
North Adelaide 57% 20% 11%
Glenside 50% 93% 62% **
Kensington 49% 30% 1%
Norwood 46% 32% 1% **
Payneham 45% 10% 21%
Plympton 43% 20% 11%
Walkerville 42% -14% 45%
Camden Park 40% 4% 27%
Mawson Lakes 37% 2% 29%
Unley 35% 37% 6% **
Goodwood 29% -14% 45%
Salisbury 27% -25% 56%

 

Darwin

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$430,000 $490,000 1.3% 14%

 

  • Darwin’s property market has performed similar to Perth’s over much of the last decade, both adversely affected by the downturn of the resources sector;
  • Over the last 16 calendar years, 51 per cent of all new dwellings approved in Darwin were apartments. The below table lists the suburbs with the highest concentration of attached dwellings;
  • Whilst Darwin’s median house price produced growth of 14 per cent over the 10-years ending May 2019, there are 10 suburbs wherein the median apartment price is lower today than 10 years ago. The suburb of Bayview had the highest price growth differential (Darwin houses increased by 14 per cent while Bayview apartments declined by 19 per cent).
High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Darwin City 95% -5% 19%
Larrakeyah 84% 2% 12%
Coconut Grove 77% -18% 32%
Woolner 75% -15% 29%
Parap 67% -14% 28%
Nightcliff 66% 11% 3%
Fannie Bay 61% -12% 26%
Rapid Creek 59% -5% 19%
Bayview 57% -19% 33%
Marrara 55% -13% 27%
Milner 48% -2% 16%
Leanyer 29% -13% 27

 

Central Coast

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$323,000 $635,000 6.8% 96%
  • Affordability pressures and congestion continue to force some Sydney residents out of the harbour city to neighbouring regional locations like the New South Wales Central Coast. Apartment construction is already in higher proportions than a few capital cities – 41 per cent of all new dwellings approved over the last 16 years were apartments;
  • A ripple affect from Sydney’s last booming property market generated a 96 per cent increase in Central Coast’s median house price over the 10-years ending May 2019. While this also lifted the median apartment values across the region, the table below (once again) shows that apartment values didn’t appreciate anywhere near as much as detached houses. Avoca Beach (38 per cent growth), Terrigal (56 per cent) and The Entrance North (57 per cent) produced the largest price growth differential.
High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Gosford City 92% 69% 27%
West Gosford 69% 59% 37%
Point Frederick 62% 93% 3%
East Gosford 55% 63% 33%
Ettalong Beach 51% 97% 1% **
Entrance North 47% 57% 39%
North Gosford 37% 79% 17%
Terrigal 36% 56% 40%
Long Jetty 36% 78% 18%
Woy Woy 31% 78% 18%
Avoca Beach 24% 38% 58%

 

Newcastle

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$325,000 $610,000 6.5% 87%
  • Australia’s 8th largest metropolis, Newcastle’s median house price increased by 87 per cent over the last 10 years;
  • While 71 per cent of all dwellings in the Newcastle municipality were recorded as detached houses at the 2016 Census, Propertyology notes that between 64 per cent and 82 per cent of all new dwellings approved in each of the last four calendar years were apartments. The port city’s housing density is rapidly intensifying;


Related Article:
Population Winners And Losers

  • Existing Newcastle apartment owners and prospective real estate buyers would be wise to learn the valuable lessons from several capital cities and understand the downside concerns which come from high-density apartment ownership.
High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Newcastle City 95% 64% 23%
Newcastle West 95% 75% 12%
Wickham 65% 0% 87%
Newcastle East 64% 48% 39%
Cooks Hill 48% 62% 25%
Jesmond 43% 35% 52%
Adamstown 29% 67% 20%
Fingal Bay 28% 38% 49%
Hamilton 27% 58% 29%
Wallsend 17% 52% 35%
Beresfield 39% 48%

Wollongong

Median house price [May 2009] Median house price [May 2019] Average annual growth rate [10YE May 2019] Cumulative capital growth rate [10YE May 2019]
$369,000 $720,000 6.9% 95%

 

  • With 48 per cent of all new dwellings approved in Wollongong over the last 16 years being apartments, the steel city’s housing density is now higher than Brisbane and Perth;
  • Like it’s regional neighbours, Newcastle and Central Coast, Wollongong’s property market rode on the back of Sydney’s last boom and is now in a downturn. 95 per cent price growth in median house prices over the last decade is an outstanding result;
  • Generally speaking, a modern Wollongong apartment might have increased in value by (say) 60 per cent over the 10-years ending May 2019 while detached house prices doubled. Moving forward, unless there is another boom during the next decade, there must be some concern for asset value declines for Wollongong apartment within modern high-density buildings.
High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Bellambi 35% 79% 16%
Austinmer 24% 15% 80%

Geelong

Median House Price
[May 2009]
Median House Price
[May 2019]
Average Annual Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Cumulative Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
$288,000 $535,000 6.4% 85%

 

Related Article: Seven Great Cities About To Be Transformed

High Density Suburbs
(Apartments / Houses)
Apartment Capital Growth Rate
[10YE May 2019]
Price Growth Differential
[House v Apartment]
Geelong City 43% 74% 11%
Herne Hill 32% 39% 46%
Geelong West 27% 38% 47%
DISCLAIMER: Median value, price growth rates, and house-apartment density ratios has been sourced from CoreLogic and ABS. Sales data and address of individual property assets used as examples in this report have been sourced from realestate.com and CoreLogic. Data in this report should not be relied upon as being accurate. Opinions and comments in this report are general in nature and are not to be taken as personal financial advice. Independent advice from a qualified professional is recommended.

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