Eight different cities from very different corners of this 6th largest country on the planet.
Using official statistics and powerful graphics, this 2-part report contains a snapshot of the last 10-years for eight (8) very different cities.
Population growth, dwelling construction volumes, detached houses versus apartments, overseas versus internal migration, capital growth rates and homeownership rates…
When one analyses the contents of each graphic in this report, it will become abundantly clear that ‘supply-and-demand’ is far from being a ‘simple’ equation of population growth and how many extra homes get built each year.
Aside from developing a cure for cancer, having a deep understanding of the cause and effect of property market performance is arguably the most complicated thing on the planet.
- From the late 1880s through to now, my formal studies of real estate in each of Australia’s 400+ townships has revealed proof that individual cities experienced years with strong population growth while its property market produced underwhelming results, and vice versa.
- There are Australian townships with total populations of circa 10,000 – such as Kingscliff (coastal) and Bowral (inland) – and a median house value that is higher than 7 out of 8 capital cities.
- Over the decades, there have been property booms when unemployment rates and interest rates were 10 percent or more, and property market downturns when both of those aforementioned metrics were significantly lower.
It’s complicated!
This report proves that some big profile locations receive large volumes of migrants from overseas, while also having a long-running struggle with retaining its existing population.
Some other locations adopt town planning strategies using the wisdom of knowing that humans are at their emotional and intellectual best when immersed in sufficient space and natural elements.
Conversely, the main priority of other jurisdictions is to raise more revenue by cramming more sardines into the can.
When reading this report, pay attention to the homeownership rates, contrasting housing density rates and the capital growth rates of the each of the eight (8) cities.
BUNBURY, WA
Situated 2-hours south of Perth, the total population of this coastal city increased by only 6.8 percent over the last 10-years, well below the 15.8 percent national average.
Over the last decade, Bunbury’s 74 percent capital growth rate was superior to Perth (60 percent), Darwin (20 percent), Melbourne (35 percent) and Sydney (70 percent). But it was a decade of two vastly different halves.
With Western Australia’s economy being intrinsically linked to mining, the struggles of that key sector directly attributed to real estate values in Bunbury (and Perth) being lower in 2020 than what they were 14-years earlier.
But the subsequent mining rebound produced a very strong property market over the subsequent 5-years to mid-2025.
Bunbury’s homeownership rate of 71 percent is impressive.
PARRAMATTA, NSW
With a current population of 280,000, this Sydney middle-ring jurisdiction is as big as Geelong, Australia’s 10th largest city.
Parramatta’s total population growth rate of 24 percent was one of the highest in Australia over the decade.
Despite that, the 16 percent capital growth rate for Parramatta apartments is among the lowest of Australia’s 400+ townships.
As with most inner and middle-ring locations within the biggest cities, a significant portion of its population relocate away from the confined living arrangements for a lifestyle upgrade elsewhere.
Moving into their slipstream each year are even larger volumes of overseas migrants.
Over the last 10-years, Parramatta’s median house value increased by a significant 88 percent to $1.9 million.
27,192 extra apartments and only 2,976 new houses means that 90 percent of all new dwellings in Parramatta over the last decade were apartments. Not nice!
Parramatta has very efficient public transport, is central to oodles of employment options and its median apartment value is a very $680,000.
But the pathetic 54 percent homeownership is reflective of owner-occupier buyers voting with their feet.
Now and always, an overwhelming majority of homeowners in this country will only buy detached houses. To be fit-for-purpose, a proper ‘home’ must offer no less than 200m2 living space plus a yard.
Related article: Why has Sydney always been more expensive?
VICTOR HARBOR, SA
An incredibly high 85 percent homeownership rate speaks volumes.
Victor Harbor consistently attracts internal migration each year [report: Where are people moving to?]
The last 6 consecutive years of property market strength in Victor Harbor is on the back of South Australia’s best economic performance for at least 30-years.
The 110 percent capital growth rate for the last decade is one of a plethora of parcels of evidence that population size is a largely useless metric.
Related article: Lessons from the rope of resistance
DARWIN, NT
The ‘Top End’ capital city has experienced a total lack of meaningful economic development and declining internal migration for the last 12-consecutive years [refer Darwin’s property market history].
A 75/25 house/apartment ratio for new dwellings over the last decade has restored balance, compared to the previous 15-years when more than 60 percent of all new dwellings were apartments.
Aside from 2021 when COVID stimulus saw rising-tides-lift-all-ships, 2025 was Darwin’s first year for strong property market performance since way back in 2013 – but the growth was entirely investor driven.
To illustrate the Top End’s continued lack of industry, over the last 10-years to June 2025 the 3-levels of government collectively added 6,970 extra jobs in NT. Meanwhile, the combined private sector lost 4,430 jobs.
Taxpayers are now paying the wages of 31 percent of NT’s total workforce.
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Part 2 of this report contains Snapshots of the Melbourne municipality of Moonee Valley, the border city of Albury-Wodonga, Glenorchy in Hobart and the biggest city in the top half of Australia, Townsville.
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